Best Picture Nomination Predictions (Courtesy of Someone Who Has Seen 4 Movies from 2011)

Yes, I am a terrible film blogger whose life has become so busy that I don't have time to watch more than 4 goddamn new movies in a year, but that doesn't mean that we can't have fun talking about movies, does it?  I'll take the next few posts to predict the 2012 Oscar nominations starting with best picture.  [For the record, the only 2011 movies that I have seen are Terri, Moneyball, The Artist, and Cedar Rapids]


BEST PICTURE (For some reason, the Academy has decided to nominate between 5 and 10 nominees for best picture this year contingent on how many films are chosen as #1 on at least 5 percent of the overall ballots.  So, I'll split the possibilities and guess that there will be 7)

THE ARTIST - definitely the front-runner at this point.  I saw it this past weekend and can confirm that it is charming and very well-executed for a such a high concept idea.  Perhaps a bit too cute and lacking in substance for my tastes, but it's uplifting and it's about Hollywood's golden age.

THE DESCENDANTS - Alexander Payne + George Clooney = lock for at least a nomination, maybe even a win.

THE HELP - I haven't seen it so I can't comment on the historical accuracy, but with a good cast and generous helpings of white liberal guilt, I can see this getting a nod a la Mississippi Burning, Dances with Wolves, Avatar, etc.

HUGO - Like The Artist, this "love letter to cinema" will appeal to self-absorbed film industry types who like films about how great films and film industry types are.  Plus, it was directed by the guy who directed The Color of Money, making it a safe bet.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO - David Fincher doesn't bother to make movies that do not get nominated for best picture anymore.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS - At this point, critics swoon when the great Woody Allen makes a movie that is not terrible (See also Match Point, Vicky Cristina Barcelona).  If there were only 5 nominees, I don't think this would make the cut, but in this era of lowered standards, I think this gets in.

MONEYBALL - Writer Aaron Sorkin tones down his trademark too-clever-by-half dialogue and crafts an enjoyable story out of a non-fiction book about baseball statistics.  The presence of Brad Pitt doesn't hurt, but this is an achievement that is too impressive to ignore.